Lifeway Research

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Where’s the Future of Christianity?

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Christianity globe

By Aaron Earls

In 1910, more Christians lived in Europe than in the rest of the world.

The United Kingdom alone had almost as many as the Middle East, Africa and the Asia-Pacific region combined.

By 2020, no European nation will be among the 10 nations with the highest population of Christians.

Significant changes in the global makeup of Christianity are evident using data from Pew Research along with data and projections from Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary’s Center for the Study of Global Christianity.

At the turn of the 20th century, two-thirds of Christians (66 percent) lived in Europe. More than a quarter (27 percent) lived in the Americas in 1910.

Less than 5 percent lived in the Asia-Pacific region, while slightly more than 2 percent lived in the Middle East and Africa.

By the 21st century, the appearance of global Christianity had changed dramatically. Only slightly more than a quarter of Christians (26 percent) lived in Europe in 2010.

More than a third (37 percent) called the Americas home. Almost a quarter (24 percent) lived in the Middle East and Africa, while 13 percent were in the Asia-Pacific region.

In 2010, Pew found the 10 nations with the highest Christian populations were:

  1. United States
  2. Brazil
  3. Mexico
  4. Russia
  5. Philippines
  6. Nigeria
  7. China
  8. Democratic Republic of the Congo
  9. Germany
  10. Ethiopia

According to projections from the Center for the Study of Global Christianity, Germany—the last European nation among the top 10—will fall off the list by 2020, India will enter, and China will surge to third.

Their population projections for 2020 are:

  1. United States
  2. Brazil
  3. China
  4. Mexico
  5. Russia
  6. Philippines
  7. Nigeria
  8. Democratic Republic of the Congo
  9. India
  10. Ethiopia

According to the 2020 population projections, China will have as many Christians as Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom combined. Nigeria will have more than both Spain and France together.

The center of global Christianity continues to march toward the South and East.

AARON EARLS (@WardrobeDoor) is online editor of Facts & Trends.